Chen's Speech is More Provocative than Conciliatory

By Jason Kindopp

Despite some conciliatory gestures during a 10 October independence day speech from Taiwan’s President Chen Shui-bian, Beijing will view his speech as provocative and relations between the two will likely come under more strain in coming months. Chen proposed in the speech that the two parties resume cross-strait talks based on the 1992 framework. That framework led to the historic 1993 Singapore talks between Taiwan and Mainland China. Chen also proposed that the two sides initiate arms limitation negotiations, and urged Beijing to approve direct charter flights across the strait during Chinese New Year.

 Though praised by the US State Department for its conciliatory gestures, Chen’s speech will ultimately provoke Beijing more than pacify it. Chen purposely avoided agreeing to the “one-China” consensus upon which the 1992 talks were grounded.  Even more, Chen effectively conditioned the talks on China’s recognition of Taiwan as an independent nation.  He did so by asserting for the first time that the Republic of China equals Taiwan, and vice versa.  Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry underscored Chen’s statement by announcing that from now on the government would designate itself the "Republic of China (Taiwan)" in official documents, instead of the traditional Republic of China.  The Chen administration wasted no time in inaugurating the new policy, issuing an official document on Saturday that used the new appellation for the first time.   

Chen’s highly provocative move will have a much more profound impact on cross-strait relations than his conciliatory gesture, which is conditioned on terms that Beijing is certain to reject. It is also a smoke screen. Behind the rhetoric, Chen has made permanent changes to Taiwan’s official status that moves the island one step closer to formal independence. Chen also promised to forge ahead with constitutional reforms, which Beijing has persistently cautioned would precipitate military action if it sought to redefine Taiwan’s international status. He also urged Taiwan’s lawmakers to approve an $18bn arms package from the US, which will undoubtedly make his proposal for arms limitations talks appear as disingenuous to Beijing.

 The speech’s context also ensures the overall impact in Beijing will be negative. The Chen Administration changed much of the National Day celebration’s pageantry to affirm a unique Taiwanese identity, for example replacing the traditional red and blue Republic of China banner with a green (the color of pro-independence forces) banner emblazoned with a silhouette of Taiwan. More broadly, the celebration also came on the heels of a US-Taiwan defense industry conference in Arizona, at which US Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Richard Lawless gave a keynote address urging Taiwan to boost its defenses against a surprise invasion from China. The conference also featured a teleconferenced speech by former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui, Beijing’s arch nemesis, who advocated that Taiwan hold a popular referendum on independence. 

 With Taiwan’s 11 December legislative elections rapidly approaching, and with the pro-independence alliance poised to win a majority, Chen will likely seek to rally his base by pushing the envelope ever farther. In such a scenario, cross-strait tensions will undoubtedly mount.

  Jason Kindopp is a China analyst at the Eurasia Group.